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Extreme value analysis of air pollution data and their comparison between two large urban regions of South America

机译:南美两大城市大气污染数据极值分析及比较

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摘要

Sixteen years of hourly atmospheric pollutant data (1996-2011) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), and seven years (2005-2011) of data measured in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ), were analyzed in order to study the extreme pollution events and their return period. In addition, the objective was to compare the air quality between the two largest Brazilian urban areas and provide information for decision makers, government agencies and civil society. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were applied to investigate the behavior of pollutants in these two regions. Although GEV and GPD are different approaches, they presented similar results. The probability of higher concentrations for CO, NO, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 was more frequent during the winter, and O3 episodes occur most frequently during summer in the MASP. On the other hand, there is no seasonally defined behavior in MARJ for pollutants, with O3 presenting the shortest return period for high concentrations. In general, Ibirapuera and Campos Elísios stations present the highest probabilities of extreme events with high concentrations in MASP and MARJ, respectively. When the regions are compared, MASP presented higher probabilities of extreme events for all analyzed pollutants, except for NO; while O3 and PM2.5 are those with most frequent probabilities of presenting extreme episodes, in comparison other pollutants.
机译:按顺序分析了圣保罗大都会地区(MASP)的16年每小时大气污染物数据(1996-2011)和里约热内卢大都会地区(MARJ)的7年时间(2005-2011)数据进行了分析研究极端污染事件及其恢复期。此外,目标是比较巴西两个最大的城市地区之间的空气质量,并为决策者,政府机构和公民社会提供信息。应用广义极值(GEV)和广义帕累托分布(GPD)来研究这两个区域中污染物的行为。尽管GEV和GPD是不同的方法,但它们给出了相似的结果。在MASP中,CO,NO,NO2,PM10和PM2.5浓度较高的可能性在冬季更为频繁,而O3发作最常见于夏季。另一方面,MARJ中没有污染物的季节性定义行为,O3代表高浓度污染物的最短回收期。总的来说,伊比拉普埃拉和坎波斯·埃利西奥斯站的极端事件发生概率最高,分别集中在MASP和MARJ中。比较区域时,MASP对所有分析的污染物(NO除外)的极端事件发生概率更高。与其他污染物相比,O3和PM2.5是最经常出现极端事件的概率。

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